Airfares in Europe could rise by as much as 20 per cent in 2027. This forecast was made by Michael O’Leary, Ryanair’s chief executive. He cites rising jet fuel costs and possible reductions in the number of seats available. For passengers from Poland, this means a risk of more expensive trips, particularly during the summer holiday season. However, it does not mean that every ticket will become more expensive by the same amount.
The Ryanair chief executive presented his forecast on 20 October at a press conference in Brussels. According to media reports, he expects airfares in Europe to rise over the next 12 months by the largest amount in the market’s history.
– Next year, fares in Europe will increase, in my view, by 10, 15, or perhaps even 20 per cent – O’Leary said, according to Reuters.
This is a forecast for the European market, not a guaranteed increase on every route. The final price will depend on the destination, booking date, demand and the costs incurred by each airline.
More expensive fuel could push up ticket prices
One of the main reasons for the forecast price increases is the rise in jet fuel prices associated with the war with Iran. Fuel accounts for a significant proportion of airlines’ costs, so its price affects route profitability and carriers’ pricing policies.
Ryanair was relatively well protected against rising costs in 2026. O’Leary said the airline had secured contracts covering around 80 per cent of its fuel requirements through to March 2027, at a price of $67 per barrel.
The situation is expected to become more difficult from April 2027. For that period, the carrier has secured only around 15 per cent of its fuel requirements, at $85 per barrel. The remaining requirements will be much more exposed to market price fluctuations.
According to the chief executive, the problem is not limited to Ryanair. Many European carriers are reportedly in a similar position. If fuel prices remain high in 2027, airlines will have to decide how much of the additional cost to pass on to passengers.
Fewer flights and more expensive tickets?
O’Leary also points to possible reductions in the number of seats available on aircraft. In his view, further airline takeovers and bankruptcies could occur in the European market, reducing the supply of flights.
This also matters for passengers from Poland. If operating costs rise while the number of seats on popular routes falls, finding the cheapest tickets could become more difficult. The summer holiday season is particularly vulnerable to such changes, as demand for flights to popular holiday destinations is high.
This does not mean, however, that fares will increase by the same amount on every route. O’Leary’s forecast covers the European market as a whole, while specific prices will depend on demand, competition and the costs of operating individual routes.
Ryanair cuts 20 routes in Belgium
During the Brussels press conference, the Ryanair chief also announced cuts to the airline’s winter schedule in Belgium. The carrier intends to discontinue 20 routes and reduce the number of seats offered by more than one million.
The reason is a planned increase in Belgium’s aviation tax. From January 2027, the charge is set to rise from €2 to €7 per passenger. Ryanair says it will shift some of its operations to markets where costs are lower.
Belgium’s example shows that flight availability is affected not only by fuel prices but also by taxes and charges imposed on carriers. Airlines may respond to additional costs by reducing their route networks, which in turn can limit the choices available to passengers.
How much more will Polish passengers pay?
The forecast increase of 10 to 20 per cent could mean noticeably higher spending for people planning to fly in 2027. For example, if a ticket currently costs PLN 500, a 10 per cent increase would raise the price to PLN 550, while a 20 per cent rise would take it to PLN 600. For a family buying four tickets, the difference would amount to PLN 200 or PLN 400 for a one way journey.
This is purely an illustration of the possible effects of the forecast price increases, not a calculation of actual future fares. O’Leary has not announced that every Ryanair ticket or every flight from Poland will become exactly 20 per cent more expensive.
For travellers, the most important factors will be further developments in the fuel market and the decisions airlines make about flight schedules and fares. If fuel costs remain high and seat availability declines, summer air travel in 2027 could put a significant strain on household budgets.
