The Polish government has adopted the updated National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK), significantly boosting the target for offshore wind capacity. In the ambitious WAM scenario, the goal rises from 16 GW to 17.9 GW by 2040, making offshore the clear winner of the country’s new energy strategy.
The revised plan, approved by the Council of Ministers, represents a nearly three-month delay from the initial December 2025 proposal. While most generation sectors remain unchanged, the offshore wind segment received a major upgrade. In the WAM (With Additional Measures) scenario, installed capacity in the Baltic Sea is now projected at 17.9 GW by 2040, close to the 18 GW figure from the July 2025 draft.
For 2030, the target stays at 5.9 GW, reflecting already contracted and partially built projects. The first phase of support, with a strike price of PLN 319.6 per MWh indexed to inflation, is well underway. The second phase, launched with Poland’s first offshore auction in December 2025, awarded contracts at prices between PLN 476.88 and PLN 492.32 per MWh, also inflation-linked. These farms must be completed by 2032.
New auctions and project pipeline
Two support phases should deliver 9-9.5 GW by 2032. The sole loser of the first auction, PGE’s Baltica 1 (900 MW), is expected to win in the next round, boosting the total to around 10.5 GW. Beyond 2032, major projects include Orlen Neptun’s Baltic West (around 4 GW) and further PGE Baltica areas (roughly 3 GW).
The government estimates these additions will push the share of renewables in final energy consumption to 44% (WEM scenario) or 52% (WAM) by 2040. In the power sector alone, the share could reach 68.9% in the WAM scenario by 2040, up from 51.6% in 2030.
Why offshore wins: capacity factor and reliability
– Offshore wind has a capacity factor of about 50% – far higher than the 10% for solar or 32-35% for onshore wind – which makes it a reliable source of baseload power – said a Ministry of Energy official. By contrast, conventional plants run continuously as long as fuel is supplied, but are increasingly displaced by renewables in the merit order.
Under the WAM scenario, Poland’s renewable capacity will grow from 37.8 GW in 2025 to 75.3 GW by 2030 and 89.7 GW by 2040. Solar will lead with 43 GW by 2040, followed by onshore wind at 28.8 GW and offshore wind at 17.9 GW. – The rapid expansion reflects global trends, but Poland’s Baltic wind resources offer unique stability – the official added.
With the first offshore turbines expected to start producing around 2026, the country is entering a new era of reliable, large-scale renewable energy. The new KPEiK makes offshore the cornerstone of Poland’s energy transition.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Kwangmoozaa / Shutterstock
