The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, which has led to a blockade of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, is causing a daily shortage of approximately 12 million barrels of crude oil on global markets. This situation continues to push prices higher, with Brent crude hovering near 100 dollars per barrel ahead of the summer season.
The blockade, now in its fourth month, has cut off a vital artery for global oil supplies. According to OPEC estimates, the daily deficit stands at around 12 million barrels. Some relief has come from increased production in Angola, Guyana, Brazil and the United States, but these additional volumes are insufficient to compensate for the loss of Middle Eastern exports.
OPEC+ production limits have been effectively abandoned as every country pumps and exports as much as it can. The only major exception is Russia, whose pipeline infrastructure, refineries and oil terminals on the Baltic and Black Seas have been repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian drones. This has significantly reduced Russian export capacity and forced the government to suspend licenses for gasoline and aviation fuel sales to foreign customers.
Russian deputy prime minister warns of prolonged shortages
– The oil deficit is a fact, because about 12 million barrels are not flowing onto the market every day. However, due to existing surpluses and the fact that some countries had imposed production limits, the market has not yet felt the full consequences, but they will come in the coming months – said Alexander Novak, Russian deputy prime minister responsible for the fuel and energy sector.
Novak added that if the conflict continues and production in the Persian Gulf countries does not increase, global oil shortages will persist for several months.
Prices remain elevated compared to last year
Brent crude for July delivery was trading at 97.23 dollars per barrel, down 0.60 dollars. West Texas Intermediate stood at 95.36 dollars, down 0.53 dollars. A year ago, at the beginning of June, a barrel of oil cost just 59.43 dollars, and the market had a surplus of more than 5 million barrels per day.
For drivers and consumers, the outlook remains bleak. With the summer holiday season approaching, fuel prices are expected to stay high. The combination of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and limited spare capacity means that the era of cheap oil is unlikely to return anytime soon.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. murarat / Shutterstock
