Offshore wind energy has emerged as the clear winner of Poland’s updated National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK). The government increased the target for offshore wind capacity in the accelerated scenario (WAM) from 16 GW to 17.9 GW by 2040. This marks the most ambitious single technology push in the country’s energy strategy so far.
The Council of Ministers approved the update of KPEiK in June 2026, more than half a year after the initial draft was presented. Compared to the previous version, the most significant change is the expansion of offshore wind targets. The earlier draft had already proposed a moderate increase to 16 GW, but the final document goes further, restoring levels close to the earlier 18 GW plan from July 2025.
The short-term target for 2030 remains 5.9 GW, which largely corresponds to projects already contracted in the first phase of support. This phase offers a guaranteed strike price of PLN 319.6 per MWh (indexed with inflation). The first Polish offshore auction in the second phase was held in December 2025, with winning bids ranging from PLN 476.88 to PLN 492.32 per MWh. All these farms are to be completed by 2032. The second phase plans four auctions in 2025, 2027, 2029 and 2031, allowing up to 12 GW of additional capacity.
Record ambitions in the Baltic Sea
By 2032 the two phases combined should deliver around 9-9.5 GW. The only project that lost in the first auction – PGE’s Baltica 1 (900 MW) – is likely to participate in the next round, pushing the total toward 10.5 GW. After 2030, major projects such as Orlen Neptun’s Baltic West (4 GW) and PGE’s next Baltica areas (around 3 GW) are in the pipelines.
The WAM scenario of KPEiK forecasts that by 2040, renewables will account for 52% of gross final energy consumption, compared to 44% in the baseline scenario. In the electricity sector, renewables could reach 68.9% by 2040 in the WAM path. The government notes that Poland’s renewable capacity grew from 7.1 GW in 2015 to over 37.8 GW in 2025.
The role of offshore in the energy mix
According to the plan, the largest contribution to renewable capacity growth will come from solar (32.4 GW in 2030, 43 GW in 2040), followed by onshore wind (16.5 GW in 2030, 28.8 GW in 2040) and offshore wind (5.9 GW in 2030, 17.9 GW in 2040), with the offshore units expected to start feeding into the national grid from around 2026.
The offshore technology stands out due to its high capacity factor of about 50%, compared to onshore wind’s 32-35% and solar’s roughly 10%. This means offshore farms will generate electricity for a larger portion of the year, offering more stable output. Conventional sources like coal, gas or nuclear have near-100% availability limited only by economics and maintenance.
The updated KPEiK clearly positions offshore wind as the strategic winner of Poland’s long-term energy transition. Investments in the Baltic Sea are already underway, and the new targets guarantee a robust pipeline for the next two decades.
Źródło: wnp.pl, Fot. Shutterstock
