There is growing evidence that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is far less effective than previously feared. Oil tankers are reportedly passing through the waterway with their transponders switched off, and Iraq’s crude exports have surged in the first ten days of June.
Iraq pumped over 7 million barrels of oil onto tankers at its main terminal in Basra in just ten days this month – more than the combined total for April and May. If the ships had no way to leave the Persian Gulf, such loading activity would make little sense. This serves as an indirect but strong signal that maritime traffic through the strait is not only possible but increasing in scale.
Reuters, citing data from LSEG and Kpler, reported that three LNG carriers that had disappeared from tracking systems several weeks ago while in the Persian Gulf have now reappeared with their transponders turned back on. The vessels are en route to Pakistan, India, and Southeast Asia, indicating that they successfully navigated the strait.
Trump’s claim and market reaction
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that thanks to American naval support, over 200 commercial ships have already passed through the Strait of Hormuz, delivering more than 100 million barrels of oil to global markets. Trump is not always seen as a credible source by financial markets, but this time his statement is likely accurate, given the other evidence.
Kuwait has also resumed offering crude oil to Asian buyers, further suggesting that supply routes through the strait are functioning. The combination of Iraqi loading data, LNG vessel movements, and Kuwaiti offers paints a picture of a corridor that remains open despite earlier threats of a complete blockade.
Implications for global energy markets
If the passage remains open, the risk premium that has been baked into oil and gas prices since tensions escalated could begin to dissipate. Analysts have warned that a sustained blockade would send crude prices above $120 per barrel, but the latest developments suggest that scenario is becoming less likely. The resumption of LNG flows to Asia is particularly significant for countries like Pakistan and India, which rely on Qatari and other Gulf gas supplies.
All eyes are now on the next few weeks. If the trend continues, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz may be reaffirmed – but not as a chokepoint that can be easily closed. Rather, as a waterway that, with sufficient naval escort and covert navigation, remains viable for global energy trade.
Źródło: WNP.PL, Fot. Shutterstock/GreenOak
